Round One: Projections Explained

Here are the hows and whys on the first round projections released last night:

1. Jim - Albert Pujols, 1B .357, .462, .653 (1b-5, 2b-5): Jim is making noise about possibly taking Cliff Lee with this pick, or trading down. Jim, I say to thine own self be true. In a draft short on dominant offensive players, Pujols is the safe pick here. As one owner said to me recently: “Pitcher performance is just too variable in the SL.” One piece of advice, though. If you draft Pujols as a second baseman, get Mark Ellis later on as a handcuff.
2. Keith - Cliff Lee, LHP 17YZG+3: Keith has not taken a position player in the first round of the draft since he took Bonds with the first overall pick in 2003. Even after Sabathia’s up and down year in 2008, Keith will take a pitcher again in 2009. Lee is a unique talent in a somewhat deep pitching year in that he has the Z and the G. His +3 move is also a bonus in a year where the catcher talent pool is more like a cesspool.
3. Greg- Tim Lincecum, P 17XYG+0: Greg likes a balanced team and Lincecum could be a dominant pitcher in the SL. I like to compare his stats to Peavy in 2008. Ended up with a better SL ERA than Lackey or Sabathia. I also have three words that may send Greg away from an offensive player in this spot: 2007 Roy Halladay.
4. Chris- Johan Santana, LHP 15XZ+2: Greg could take Santana in the 3 slot, leaving Lincecum for Chris. He does have a penchant for Z pitchers, and the +2 move and left-handedness are tempting. Chris, on the other hand, is a maverick. Nobody knows what he will do here, only that it will be “mavericky.” Berkman is another strong possibility here.
5. Bob- Hanley Ramirez, SS .301, .400, .540 (SS-8): Bob likes to take good offensive players at traditionally limited positions. SS used to be a position where a guy could get some power. In 2009, only H-Ram offers more than 30 dingers. He also comes with a best-in-class .400 OBP and he can steal you a base or two, particularly against this year’s crop of catchers.
6. Matt- Rich Harden, P 16XYG+2: Matt likes pitchers, and Harden is the best one left. High strikeouts, good homerun control and a +2 move all make Harden a good pick in this slot.
7. Ken- Manny Ramirez, DH .332, .430, .601 (OF1-32): Ken says he likes Berkman in this slot and that is the name I originally had penciled in here. He fits Ken’s model of being able to run. However, I went with Manny because he had better offensive numbers across the board and I though Ken put less of a premium on defense. I guess the combination of superior defense, speed, steals, etc. bump Berkman ahead of Manny.
8. Gregg- Lance Berkman, 1B .312, .420, .567 (1b-5): Since Berkman will probably be off the board, Gregg gets to take Manny in this slot. The .600+ slugging will be nice, although it is always tough to take a DH in the first round. Ortiz had a nice year two-years in a row as a first-round DH. Manny is a similar pick here.
9. Steve- Chase Utley, 2B .292, .380, .535 (2b-8, 1b-2): Steve is similar to Bob in that he looks for positional value in all of his picks. This is a model I have used with limited success and most recently I had gone back to the “best available player regardless of position” used by some teams. Steve, however, can often make it work and Utley is a good pick for him here.
10. Graham- C.C. Sabathia, LHP 14XYZG+1: Graham quietly built his team around pitching last year and I think he liked the results. I think he takes a pitcher and a position player in the swing and Sabathia is the best pitcher left. Similar to Santana but with the G, he has the potential to give Graham some value in this spot.