Fun with the Data Disk

I wanted to do a semi-quick post about the joy of “data disk” day, when the disk comes out and we are all able to plug in APBA’s interpretation of last year’s stats for the first time. This year, as usual, there were a few kind of fun wrinkles and some of the same age-old dilemmas. I will highlight a few of them here:

The Mike Hessman Problem a/k/a “The Tempting J-4”: Every year there is a limited player or two who played in very few games but, of course, played very well. The 2009 SL season brings us Mike Hessman, he of the 12 3b games and the 1-1-1-1-6 APBA card. Also available as an emergency catcher and pinch-hitter/DH is Taylor Teagarden, with 7 power numbers (1-1-1-5-5-6-6) for 16 games. Nelson Cruz (31 games, 1.030 OPS) and Chris Dickerson (31 games, 1.021 OPS) will both get a look from SL managers.

The Joe Nathan Problem a/k/a “When to Take a Reliever”: Kind of an interesting problem each year is when it is appropriate and advantageous to take the first relief pitcher. In 2008, it was the middle of the 4th round before the first reliever went (to Keith). 6 more relievers then went in the next 25 or so picks. In 2007, it was the first pick of the 4th round (to Bob). 5 more relievers were gone before Bob picked again. In 2006, Graham took a reliever in the 1st round. Not sure he loves that pick in retrospect. Anyway, in 2009 there is kind of a unique situation in that only two pitchers about a 17 grade have a Z rating: Nathan (24XYZG+0) and Mariano (20XYZG+0). Supply and demand may dictate we see some reliever action before the 4th round.

The Tim Hudson Problem a/k/a “A Starter that can Pinch-Run”: This year Tim Hudson (11Z+1 with 15 speed) and Jair Jurrjens (a 10YG with 15 speed) are the most tempting from a speed standpoint, but managers should also not forget that Jake Peavy (13X+1) and Ryan Dempster (14XG) are both 10s. Hopefully the two of them will be wearing the same uniform in spring training, possibly with Gregg (voted most likely to overvalue a Cubs starter in the draft) and the Cubs.

The Willy Taveras Problem a/k/a “He Can Run, But God forbid he has to do anything else”: Taveras is slightly below average for the SL as a fielder (2-32) and way below average as a hitter (3.8 runs per game), but he qualifies for over 100 steal attempts with a C35 rating. I can hear Greg salivating from here. A related question is how much of a bump Matt Holliday will get from his 45 SL steal attempts at E35. Already a premier player, Holliday will surely make some manager very happy early in the draft. Speaking of which, who was managing the Rockies last year, Vince Coleman?

The Shane Victorino Problem a/k/a “You just keep on pushing my love over the borderline:” Every year there are guys who excel in two or more areas, but those areas don’t happen to include offense, at least not at the SL level. This makes them great bench players, part-time starters, but makes them borderline everyday players. 2009 brings us Shane Victorino, the “Flyin’ Hawaiian.” Switch-hitter, 3-38 in the outfield, tons of steal attempts with a solid 30 steal success rating. However, a small 5.8 runs per game on the offensive side. These guys always end up performing at a 2.8 runs per game level for me, but it feels so good to run them out there because they look so good in the field and on the basepaths.