2009 Draft Projections: The First Round

It is well known by now that Jim has drawn the Ace and will have the first pick in the 2009 SL Draft. Should he take a pitcher or a position player? Well, there is little doubt that pitching is important in the SL. Only twice (22 percent of the time) in the Modern Era (2000-2008) has a team finished in the bottom third in the league in ERA and still won the Spit Cup. [Prior to 2000 scrubs like Doug Basler were in the league, leaving it with little credibility.] It happened this past year, when Ken finished 8th; it also happened when Ken won in 2001, when his team finished 7th in ERA. In 2008, Ken's team was somethinng of an outlier as most teams performed pretty well and the league ERA was 4.15. In 2001, pre-expansion, the league ERA was a robust 5.01 and pitching was at less of a premium.

The most common position for a league champ in the Modern Era in terms of team ERA is 2nd, happening in 2000, 2002, 2006 and 2007. Three times the Spit Cup winner has finished in the middle third of the league in team ERA, and, as noted, twice in the bottom third. No team in the Modern Era has won the league ERA title and the Spit Cup.

Three times (33 percent of the time) in the Modern Era (2000, 2005, 2008) the team with the first pick has won the Spit Cup. Only once in these three years (2000) was a pitcher taken first.

Jim does not like pitching. I have been in fantasy leagues with him since the early 1990s, and I can tell you he does not like pitching. Based on this if nothing else, and the fact that a position player has been taken first for the last two years, we are projecting a position player to go first in the draft again in 2009. After that, we think the top three pitchers will go, followed by a little run of offense.

Let's get to the projections:

First Round:

1. Jim - Albert Pujols, 1B .357, .462, .653 (1b-5, 2b-5)
   
2. Keith - Cliff Lee, LHP 17YZG+3
3. Greg- Tim Lincecum, P 17XYG+0
4. Chris- Johan Santana, LHP 15XZ+2
5. Bob- Hanley Ramirez, SS .301, .400, .540 (SS-8)
6. Matt- Rich Harden, P 16XYG+2
7. Ken- Manny Ramirez, DH .332, .430, .601 (OF1-32)
8. Gregg- Lance Berkman, 1B .312, .420, .567 (1b-5)
9. Steve- Chase Utley, 2B .292, .380, .535 (2b-8, 1b-2)
10. Graham- C.C. Sabathia, LHP 14XYZG+1

Full analysis of all these picks coming soon.