If APBA was a perfect simulation tool, nothing would matter except for a player’s performance during the past MLB season. It would be possible to project a player’s performance based on the same statistical tools that we use to project offensive or defensive effectiveness, such as OPS, WHIP, HR/9, etc. APBA, however, is not a perfect simulation. It has its quirks, and so does the BBW software, meaning that there is an APBA-ball element to playing the game that can give savvy managers something of a competitive advantage.
In a league full of ringers, looking for a competitive advantage can quickly become an obsession. However, it is not necessary to fully understand how APBA works to minimize the knowledge gap between managers who played APBA on the Master Boards and those who have only played on the computer, where the impact of every dice roll is calculated by the computer behind the scenes. A basic understanding of how the game works can help a lot.
Background
As a bit of background, understand that every APBA outcome is determined first by a dice roll, resulting in a number between 11 and 66. [Note: A batter’s best outcome is always going to be at 66, which is why APBA savants sometimes sign their correspondence “66s.” It is the same as wishing someone the best of luck.] There are 36 possibilities, so each number on a player’s APBA card should reflect approximately 1/36 of the outcomes from a player’s MLB season stats. In some cases, 1/36 is not a precise enough measure to simulate a player’s stats, so a second column is used. If a zero appears in the first column, we look to the second column for the outcomes, allowing for even more precision in the simulation. Thus, a player who hit a home run fewer than once out of every 36 MLB at bats is likely to have a zero instead of a 1 (home run) at 66.
When looking at the outcomes on a player’s APBA card, not all outcomes are equal. Numbers 1-6 are extra base hits in most situations, and these are what we call the “power numbers.” Numbers 7-11 are singles of various strength (more later), 13 is a strikeout, 14 is a walk. 42 is a hit by pitch. 24s are double plays with runners on base. Everything else is probably an out, although there are some errors and other rare plays built in as well. I like to count the “on-base” numbers on a player’s card as well as the power numbers. Thus, I look for 1-11s, 14s, and 42s.
As suggested above, not all singles are created equal. As I understand it, 7s and 11s are almost always singles. 8s and 9s may be singles or outs, depending how high a grade of pitcher is on the mound. Some high grade pitchers turn 8s into outs, some turn 9s into outs, and the highest grade pitchers turn both 8s and 9s into outs. A 10 is a weak single, reduced to an out about half the time on average. Thus, when I look at a card I like to see 7s and 11s.
Similarly, not all extra base hit numbers are created equal. A 1 is almost always a home run, unless the pitcher has a G or an H, in which case the home run will sometimes (but not always, depends on the situation) be reduced to a double. With the bases empty, 2s and 3s are triples and 4, 5 and 6 result in doubles. Put a runner on first, however, and the 2s and 4s are triples, 3s and 6s are doubles, and the 5 is a home run. A 5 is more valuable than a 6 because it results in a home run far more often than a 6, although a 6 is also useful with a pitcher with an L or M on the mound. Thus, I like to look for 1s and 5s in a player’s power numbers.
As stated above, good HR control pitchers (Gs and Hs) sometimes reduce home runs to doubles and I believe they will sometimes even make a home run into a single. However, it is my understanding that extra base hits are not ever converted to outs. A Z pitcher will sometimes turn a walk into ball 2, but I do not believe they would be able to turn a 14 into an out.
High-strikeout pitchers (particularly guys with Xs and XYs) will convert certain types of outs to strikeouts, and XYs will sometimes convert a 9 (single) to a strikeout. In the same way, however, guys with a W will sometimes convert outs into walks.
Other results we need to watch for on a player’s card are the 31s, 24s, and 42s. 42s are usually hit-by-pitches, which are good for OBP, but also lead to injuries in APBA. 24s usually result in double plays with guys on base, so I usually count the number of 24s on a card, especially when deciding between two sluggers of similar value. The 31 is often a fly out to CF, but with the hit and run on, it becomes a hit. Thus, we will also want to count the number of 31s on a player’s card. [Note: A player’s hit and run rating in Advanced Draft (a 1, 2 or 3) is the same as the number of 31s on his card.]
In addition to hit numbers, we should say a quick word about platoon ratings and the stretch. Platoon ratings are important because a 3 rating raises a pitcher’s grade by 3 points, a 4 rating by 4 points, and so on. As stated above, higher grade pitchers stop more hits. Putting the stretch on reduces a pitcher’s grade slightly. Lower grade pitchers allow more hits. Thus, a manager is smart not to put the stretch on when the runner at third is no threat to steal or when the opposing manager would be foolish to risk the steal (i.e., Pujols is up).
Elementary APBA
Based on these fundamentals, here are some simple rules of thumb for reading a player’s APBA card:
- 1s are best. 5s are more valuable than 6s. Gs and Hs good. Ls and Ms bad.
- 7s and 11s are better than 8s, 9s or 10s.
- 14s are good. Zs are good for stopping 14s.
- 13s are bad for hitters. Xs and XY pitchers are valuable because they turn outs into strikeouts and even some hits (but they may reduce double plays).
- 24s are bad.
- 31s are good.
- 42s are a mixed bag. A risk with a J-2, J-3 or J-4 player (higher injury risk).
Expanding these further, here is a look at a couple of the elementary APBA-ball elements that every SL manager should consider during game play, when creating their lineup, and, in my view, when trying to decide between two or three players with similar MLB numbers during the draft:
The Hit & Run:
A player with three 31s on his card (Ichiro, 2009) gets three extra hit possibilities when the hit and run is called. 3/36 is 1/12 or .083 points of batting average. Thus, a guy like Ichiro becomes even more value when a base-stealer is on in front of him.
Might Makes Right:
As stated above, high grade pitchers turn singles into outs. However, extra base hits are not turned into outs. Thus, singles hitters (Ichiro, 2009) tend to suffer in batting average in the SL. Sluggers tend to do a little bit better. A 5 is often a home run with guys on base. If you have a guy with 5s on his card, you will want him up with runners on base as often as possible.
Zs, Gs and Hs are Valuable, but so are 14s:
Any rating that turns a walk into ball 2 or a home run into a double is worth looking for when assembling the pitching staff. But in the same way that extra base hits are not converted into outs, I believe that 14s (walks) are not typically converted into outs. Thus, a 14 may be worth more than an 8 or 9. High batting average in MLB does not necessarily mean high batting average in SL.
Beware the J-2 with a 42.
If you want to get the most possible games out of your J-2 superstar, it helps if he doesn’t have a 42 on his card.
